Upgrades in the CAMS global forecasting system

The global atmospheric composition forecasting system used operationally to provide CAMS forecasts underwent an upgrade on 12th of November 2024: cycle 49R1 of the Integrated Forecast System with atmospheric composition extensions (IFS-COMPO) has been successfully implemented and has replaced cycle 48R1, which became operational on 27th of June 2023.

Cycle 49R1 includes several key developments that HYGEOS coordinated or contributed to in the context of the CAMS2_35 project:

  • Representation of the life cycle of stratospheric sulphate,
  • Implementation and use of the simple thermodynamical module EQSAM4CLIM,
  • Update of some of the aerosol properties
  • Implementation of aspherical and hydrophilic desert dust

An evaluation of cycle 49R1 IFS-COMPO simulated fields is provided in a recently published paper (Rémy, et al., 2024) which showed very nice improvements in the simulation of PM2.5 (figure below) as well as that of surface nitrate and ammonium.  Cycle 49R1 IFS-COMPO also allows for the experimental output of aerosol, cloud and precipitation pH.

Rémy, S., S. Metzger, V. Huijnen, J. E. Williams, and J. Flemming, An improved representation of aerosol in the ECMWF IFS-COMPO 49R1 through the integration of EQSAM4Climv12 – a first attempt at simulating aerosol acidity, Geoscientific Model Development, 17, 7539–7567, 2024. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7539-2024

Weekly PM2.5 in 2019. Left, observed (blue) and simulated without data assimilation (green: cycle 48R1 IFS-COMPO; red: cycle 49R1 IFS-COMPO; grey: cycle 49R1 IFS-COMPO without the use of EQSAM4Clim). Right, fractional gross error of simulated weekly PM2.5.

Weekly PM2.5 in 2019. Left, observed (blue) and simulated without data assimilation (green: cycle 48R1 IFS-COMPO; red: cycle 49R1 IFS-COMPO; grey: cycle 49R1 IFS-COMPO without the use of EQSAM4Clim). Right, Fractional Gross Error (FGE) of simulated weekly PM2.5. Results are shown for background rural stations in Europe (top), U.S. (middle) and China (bottom).